Recession Fears Grip Americans as Trump's Economic Approval Dips

Three months into President Donald Trump’s second term, public confidence in his economic leadership has taken a hit. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 16-21, 2025, shows just 37% of Americans approve of his handling of the economy, a drop from 42% shortly after his January inauguration. The survey of 4,306 adults, with a margin of error of 2%, paints a picture of growing unease, with 75% expressing fear of an impending recession.

This decline in approval reflects broader concerns about the direction of the U.S. economy. With inflation expectations climbing and personal finances under strain, many Americans are grappling with a sense of uncertainty. The poll highlights a stark partisan divide, but even among Republicans, confidence in Trump’s economic policies has slipped, signaling challenges ahead for his administration.

Economic sentiment is shaped not just by policy but by lived experiences. Rising costs, sluggish wage growth, and uncertainty over trade policies have left many feeling squeezed. The Reuters/Ipsos findings align with other surveys, including those from Pew and CNBC, which report Trump’s lowest economic approval ratings to date and a sharp rise in pessimism about the nation’s financial future.

At the heart of this unease lies a question: can Trump’s economic agenda deliver stability and growth, or are the risks of his policies outweighing their potential rewards? As recession fears mount, the answer remains unclear, but the public’s waning trust is a warning sign.

Trump’s economic strategy, centered on tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts, has sparked intense debate. Supporters, particularly within Republican circles, argue that tariffs protect American industries and jobs, citing the need to counter unfair trade practices. They point to a resilient labor market, with unemployment at 4.2% and steady job growth, as evidence of economic strength. Forecasts suggest continued GDP growth, though at a slower pace, bolstered by consumer spending and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Yet, critics, including many economists and Democratic lawmakers, warn that tariffs are driving up consumer prices and stoking inflation. Recent projections estimate a 6% long-term GDP reduction and a 5% drop in wages due to trade policies, translating to a $22,000 lifetime loss for middle-income families. With 60% of Americans disapproving of Trump’s inflation management, these concerns are resonating widely. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, at 50.8 in April, reflects this gloom, marking its lowest point since June 2022.

The labor market, while stable, shows signs of strain. March 2025 saw 228,000 jobs added, led by healthcare and transportation, but declines in federal and white-collar sectors signal caution. Wage growth has slowed to 3.8% annually, and businesses are hesitant to expand amid tariff uncertainty. This bifurcation—strong demand for frontline workers but weaker prospects for college-educated professionals—underscores the uneven impact of current policies.

Public sentiment is deeply divided, yet anxiety cuts across party lines. While 80% of Republicans still back Trump’s economic vision, their confidence has dropped 12 points since November, per Reuters/Ipsos data. Democrats, with only 11% approving, are far more skeptical, but the broader trend is clear: 53% of Americans report worsening personal finances, and 76% fear a recession. The Conference Board’s Expectations Index, at 65.2 in March, sits below the recession-warning threshold.

Media coverage, often blamed for shaping economic perceptions, plays a limited role. Research shows that real-world conditions—like rising prices and stagnant wages—drive sentiment more than headlines. Still, social media and fragmented news amplify concerns, especially among younger Americans. Declining trust in traditional outlets has made public opinion more volatile, but economic reality remains the primary force behind the current pessimism.

Polling itself faces scrutiny. Low response rates and nonresponse bias challenge accuracy, with actual error margins often double the reported 2%. Despite these limitations, consistent trends across Reuters, Pew, and CNBC surveys lend weight to the findings. The data suggest a public grappling with uncertainty, wary of policy shifts, and increasingly focused on tangible economic outcomes.

As Trump navigates his second term, the economic outlook remains fraught. Supporters argue that his policies, including extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, will spur investment and growth, offsetting short-term disruptions. Critics counter that these measures favor the wealthy, inflate deficits, and fail to address middle-class struggles. With GDP growth projected at 2.2% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, and inflation expectations at a 44-year high of 6.7%, the risks are evident.

The path forward hinges on balancing bold policy moves with stability. Recession indicators, like an inverted yield curve and declining consumer confidence, suggest a 40% chance of downturn in 2025. Yet, positive signals—low unemployment, steady job growth—offer hope. For Americans watching their wallets, the stakes are personal and immediate, making the administration’s next steps critical.